Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.178541 0.208422 0.241209 0.279779 0.323832 0.372495 0.430240
2025-12-07 0.123455 0.162466 0.209941 0.271604 0.349169 0.443062 0.564834
2025-12-14 0.092705 0.133679 0.187592 0.262946 0.364625 0.496017 0.677409
2025-12-21 0.073305 0.114196 0.171635 0.256927 0.378779 0.544719 0.785447
2025-12-28 0.062231 0.103660 0.165218 0.261448 0.405678 0.610831 0.920830
2026-01-04 0.054827 0.096976 0.162817 0.270511 0.438808 0.687370 1.076311
2026-01-11 0.048170 0.090150 0.158862 0.276062 0.466368 0.757214 1.226903
2026-01-18 0.042155 0.083270 0.153619 0.278441 0.488507 0.819892 1.370818
2026-01-25 0.036826 0.076631 0.147697 0.278610 0.506484 0.876786 1.509275
2026-02-01 0.031859 0.069783 0.140364 0.275206 0.517667 0.923016 1.633397
2026-02-08 0.027546 0.063442 0.133010 0.270670 0.526031 0.964649 1.752290
2026-02-15 0.023262 0.056395 0.123306 0.260484 0.523008 0.986220 1.838315
2026-02-22 0.022110 0.055921 0.126541 0.275563 0.568035 1.095373 2.084333
2026-03-01 0.018896 0.050308 0.118633 0.267875 0.569692 1.127969 2.198994
2026-03-08 0.016101 0.045120 0.110839 0.259357 0.568650 1.155169 2.305397
2026-03-15 0.013913 0.040974 0.104683 0.253414 0.571899 1.190197 2.428056
2026-03-22 0.012721 0.039131 0.103446 0.257880 0.596600 1.267542 2.634678
2026-03-29 0.011930 0.038204 0.104209 0.266831 0.631361 1.366684 2.888994
2026-04-05 0.011013 0.036754 0.103505 0.272314 0.659128 1.453808 3.125394
2026-04-12 0.010028 0.034915 0.101572 0.274664 0.680187 1.528748 3.342327
2026-04-19 0.009051 0.032894 0.098877 0.274831 0.696288 1.594440 3.544535
2026-04-26 0.008034 0.030535 0.094946 0.271468 0.703988 1.643043 3.714906
2026-05-03 0.007095 0.028218 0.090779 0.266988 0.708603 1.685267 3.874521